September 25, 2007
What is Chemistry on One Line Worth?
One of the more interesting stories that has developed out of Washington Capitals training camp is the story of their forward line combinations. While Pettinger, Gordon, and Clark make a natural shut-down line that the team looks to want to keep together, the other three lines have been fairly surprising so far.
Most people assumed when talented puck-moving pivot Michael Nylander was signed by the Capitals, it was for the express purpose of setting up Alexander Ovechkin; while nobody (except maybe coach Glen Hanlon, if he knows more than he’s telling) knows the final lines that will be taking the ice, Alexander Ovechkin seems pretty confident that it’s going to be Viktor Kozlov centering his line this year. This struck me at least as a strange move; the team brought in a premier Swedish center at a premium price, and one of their talented rookies this year is a Swedish center who’s well on his way to converting his potential upside to actual performance, so the assumption was that the team would put Alexander Ovechkin and Nylander on the first line, and Alexander Semin and Backstrom on the second, so that Nylander could lead by example and feed Ovechkin chances. Instead, Nylander has played almost from the beginning of camp as Semin’s pivot, with Backstrom moved out of position to play as the second-line right wing. In addition, Kozlov is out of position (he has played center, but it’s not his natural position), leaving a big question mark on the right wing, currently being filled by Tomas Fleischmann, or “Flash“.
Now, while these are all talented players, it means that what Hanlon considers his optimal lines don’t have what the fans would expect, based on previous player performance. I’m sure there are a lot more factors going into this than anyone outside of the Capitals locker room understands, but at a glance, the two options seem to be that somebody in camp is performing well under or over expectations, or that certain players have had so many intangibles when together on the ice that it’s worth sacrificing an optimal configuration to get them on the same line.
What originally was worrying when Nylander got his bump to the second line was that perhaps he was performing well below par; however, having watched him in New York frequently, I didn’t see him as the kind of player who could possibly have that sort of drop-off in his game in one off-season. I also trust that Tarik or the OFB Team would tell everyone if they were seeing the flameout of the decade from him in camp, and so far they’ve only had good things to say. However, I also haven’t heard anything so outrageously good about Kozlov that would indicate he’s done enough to elevate his game both overall and at the center position to make skill alone account for the move.
Having Kozlov play first-line center is what’s really interesting. I know NHL superstar-turned-blogger Alex Ovechkin wanted to play with Kozlov (he was a big part of having him brought here, if memory and rumor serves me correctly), and he already had great chemistry with him (this Q&A from Mike Vogel’s blog has Ovechkin saying that playing with Kozlov is as good as with Zubrus from a chemistry standpoint). However, the “natural” configuration would have been Kozlov at right wing and Backstrom at center; the addition of Poti and the shot-stifling play against the Bolts this preseason indicate that the Capitals coaching staff want the team to move to a more puck-possession centered game, and placing a sub-par faceoff man like Kozlov at first-line center seems to go against that philosophy. If the Caps want to get Ovechkin the puck so he and Kozlov can work together, it’s going to be a lot more difficult when they have to go retrieve it from the other team well over half the time.
The biggest issue that this would seem to create for the Capitals, besides Kozlov in the face-off circle, is the first-line right wing spot. With promising 2003 first-round pick Eric Fehr injured, Flash seems to be the go-to guy; while I agree that he’s got every chance to be a top-6 forward, I’m concerned about his ability to finish plays. Again, with the assumption that the Capitals are moving towards a puck possession strategy, they’re going to be looking to hold and move the puck in the offensive zone and wait to punish the defense for their mistakes. Although there are already two snipers out there on the first line who can punish mistakes, Flash’s game seems like a marginal fit to work with them within that gameplan.
However, those of us looking in from the outside move forward with the (justified) assumption that Hanlon knows what the hell he’s doing. So, the burning question for me going into this season is going to be: Just how good are Semin, Nylander, and Backstrom when they’re on the ice together? If the Capitals are moving forward with these lines based in large part on the play of that second line, they must believe that disrupting Ovechkin’s gameplan and making it harder to get the puck to him, as well as reducing the scoring threat from the other wing while he’s on the ice (letting teams ratchet the pressure up on him) is a necessary evil that comes with getting this second line, and that indicates that they believe that the second-line is going to be huge this season, perhaps even a bigger threat than any combination of Ovechkin, a Swedish center, and Kozlov.
What do you think? Do you think Hanlon is looking to experiment early in the year, or does he have this set in his mind as the configuration of the 2007-’08 Washington Capitals? Is putting together Semin, Nyls, and Backstrom going to be as good as putting together chocolate and peanut butter (along with an Islanders-orange wrapper named Poti at the point)? Will adding Kozlov on that first line keep Ovechkin from getting frustrated that he’s going to carry the first line on his shoulders for another year, or will the two Russians together be able to convince the league (and the fans) that Flash can be a premier threat worthy of the position? Most importantly, do you think that this lineup gives the Capitals the best chance to win?
Filed under: Hockey